**for results in Equation 2 and Table 2, Column 1 use the following two commands
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
estat dwatson
**for results in Equation 4, use the following two commands
regress ecvote pop2pvot
estat dwatson

**for results in Table 1, jackknife estimates, use the following commands until
**line 67. Jackknife estimation is done by dropping each election, one at a time,
**and then re-estimating the model and making a forecast for each dropped 
**election. The coefficients from each regression below are used in the 
**Excel spreadsheet to make a forecast for each election, after which the errors
**are examined.
replace julypop = . in 1
** output = (1 real change made, 1 to missing)
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 39 in 1
replace julypop = . in 2
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 32 in 2
replace julypop = . in 3
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 69 in 3
replace julypop = . in 4
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 49 in 4
replace julypop = . in 5
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 74 in 5
replace julypop = . in 6
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 40 in 6
replace julypop = . in 7
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 56 in 7
replace julypop = . in 8
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 45 in 8
replace julypop = . in 9
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 21 in 9
replace julypop = . in 10
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 52 in 10
replace julypop = . in 11
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 51 in 11
replace julypop = . in 12
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 32 in 12
replace julypop = . in 13
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 57 in 13
replace julypop = . in 14
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 59 in 14
replace julypop = . in 15
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 47 in 15
replace julypop = . in 16
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 31 in 16
replace julypop = . in 17
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 45 in 17
replace julypop = . in 18
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 51 in 18
replace julypop = . in 19
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan
replace julypop = 41 in 19

twoway (lfit ecvote pop2pvot) (scatter ecvote pop2pvot, mlabel(year) yline(50) xline(50)), ytitle(Inc. Party Share of Total Electoral College Vote) xtitle(Inc. Party Share of Two-Party Popular Vote) title(Electoral College Vote by Popular Vote) subtitle(1948-2020) legend(off)

**for results in Table 2, Column 2 use the following two commands
regress pop2pvot julypop unemCh
estat dwatson

**for results in Table 2, Column 3 use the following two commands
regress pop2pvot julypop inflCh
estat dwatson

**for results in Table 2, Column 4 use the following two commands
regress pop2pvot julypop DPIChan
estat dwatson

**for results in Table 2, Column 5 use the following two commands
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan GNPxCovid_02
estat dwatson

**for results in Endnote 2 use the following two commands 
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan GNPxCovid_01
estat dwatson

**for results in Table 2, Column 6 use the following two commands 
regress pop2pvot julypop gnpchan ApprovCov_01
estat dwatson

**for results in Table 2, Column 7 use the following two commands 
regress pop2pvot julypop GNPElect elecpres
estat dwatson

**for results in Table 2, Column 8 use the following two commands 
regress pop2pvot julypop GNPElect closeinc
estat dwatson

